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The day in politics by NBC News for NBC News
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From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
FIRST THOUGHTS.*** Tonight's Address: In what will be the latest in big speeches he has delivered, President Obama tonight will address a joint session of Congress at 9:01 pm ET. Technically, it's not a State of the Union address. But with the televised entry into the chamber, the handshakes, the standing ovations, the primetime slot, and the opposition's official response, there won't be much of a difference. (Bush and Clinton also gave addresses to Congress shortly after their inaugurations.) Aides say the president's speech is expected to outline the rest of his domestic agenda, including health care, education, and energy, as well as his policies towards Iraq and Afghanistan. These aides also note that the speech will echo familiar themes. Will the president feel the need to calm the markets tonight? Sure, most of the address is going to be about domestic priorities that touch the economy, but those topics aren't just about the economic bailout. That said, when Obama talks about health care, education, and energy, he'll do so under the economic umbrella. By the way, national service is also something that will be mentioned in the speech tonight and could be fast-tracked to get Ted Kennedy's maximum involvement.*** Report Card Time: Just in time for tonight's address, there are two new report cards -- via Washington Post/ABC and New York Times/CBS polls -- that show Obama has earned high marks in his first month as president. In both surveys, more than six in 10 approve of his job, strong majorities think he's bringing about real change, and majorities approve of the just-passed economic stimulus. As for Republicans, it appears that their unified opposition to the president isn't paying dividends just yet. According to both polls, about three-quarters believe Obama has been trying to work with Republicans, while just 3 in 10 Americans think the GOP is doing the same with the president. Moreover, the WashPo/ABC poll shows that while 50% approve of congressional Democrats, only 38% approve of their Republican counterparts, although that GOP score is up 13 points since the middle of last year. Perhaps the most worrisome number for the GOP in that poll: "Democrats maintain an edge of nearly 2 to 1 over Republicans as the party that Americans prefer to confront 'the big issues' over the next few years." But remember one thing: Republicans need to worry about keeping their remaining customer base happy. And while that isn't playing well right now, do they have another choice? That's the conundrum for the GOP right now. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/02/23/AR2009022302176.html?hpid=topnews and http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/24/us/politics/24poll.html?_r=1&hp*** The Power Of The Bully Pulpit: One example why Obama is winning the charm war -- and why Republicans are not -- was yesterday's televised Q&A with congressional Democrats, Republicans, and policy experts at the conclusion of his "Fiscal Responsibility Summit." Obama taking questions from these folks resembled a formal White House press conference, or better yet the British prime minister's question hour with Parliament. Writing about yesterday's Q&A, the Washington Post's Stephen Stromberg made this point: the "more Obama makes it seem like he is reaching out, the higher the price the Republicans will have to pay in order to oppose him." The Q&A was a great example of the power of the bully pulpit, and why Obama is winning the bipartisanship argument without necessarily being bipartisan (outside of soliciting GOP opinions without really acting on them). http://voices.washingtonpost.com/postpartisan/2009/02/summit_diplomacy.html*** Jindal's Rebuttal: Giving tonight's GOP response to Obama's primetime address is Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, who's already been in the spotlight the past few days -- opposing part of Obama's stimulus and appearing on Meet the Press. Perhaps it's our 24-7 focus on politics, but with all the attention Jindal has received, it's still a bit jarring to us that Jindal has served only about a year as governor and is just 37 years old. As we've noted before, giving the response isn't always a stepping-stone to future success. One past responder who's back in the news: former Washington Gov. Gary Locke, who is "likely" to be Obama's Commerce pick. http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2009/02/11/1790975.aspx*** Three Times A Charm? Speaking of Locke, it appears Obama has settled on the former governor to be his third pick to lead Commerce (following the failed Bill Richardson and Judd Gregg appointments). Locke, a Chinese-American, has done a slew of trade missions to China, particularly when he was governor of Washington, which happens to be a big free-trade state. This is actually a big deal to business since he's a free-trade guy.*** Another Summit? President Obama let slip yesterday that he'll be convening yet another summit at the White House next week -- this one on health care. It was pretty clear yesterday, and will be clearer tonight, that the administration is going to make a strong push to get major health-care legislation passed in the next few months. But don't expect a drawn-out battle. That was one of the lessons that everyone learned from the 1990s. If major health-care legislation isn't passed by the Fourth of July, can it get passed before the Nov. 2010 elections?*** On Capitol Hill Today: Per NBC's Ken Strickland, Senate Democratic leaders say they're optimistic they'll have the 60 votes needed today to advance a bill that would give DC voting rights with a seat in the House of Representatives. (It would also give Utah an additional House seat.) While a successful vote would be a giant step forward for DC voting rights advocates, Strick says, several additional steps remain on both sides of the Capitol and likely before the courts. The vote is procedural, designed to break a filibuster on the bill. Once that hurdle is cleared, the bill then must push its way through the amendment process, which could include contentious measures on things like DC gun rights. What's more, the House has yet to pass its version of the bill, which is slightly different from the Senate version. And even if/when both chambers pass the same bill, it's all but guaranteed to face immediate court challenges on the constitutionality of giving the DC a voting seat in the House. That part to the process could take years to resolve.*** Remember That Solis Confirmation? Strickland also notes that while it seems apparent to Senate Democrats that Hilda Solis will eventually be confirmed as Obama's Labor secretary, Republicans are making Majority Leader Harry Reid jump through hoops to get her there. This morning, Solis' nomination will face a procedural vote on the Senate floor that neither Eric Holder nor Timothy Geithner faced in their somewhat bumpy rides to confirmation. This vote will happen immediately following the one on DC voting rights. Strick adds that Republicans are forcing Reid to muster 60 votes to advance the nomination because of her ties to a pro-labor lobbying group, as well as her support for the contentious Employee Free Choice Act. Reid's office is optimistic that the majority leader will be able to reach an agreement with Republicans for Solis to have her final confirmation vote before week's end, possibly as early as this afternoon.
Countdown to NJ GOP primary: 98 daysCountdown to VA Dem primary: 105 daysCountdown to Election Day 2009: 252 daysCountdown to Election Day 2010: 616 days

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FIRST 100 DAYS: The grades are inAccording to the new Washington Post/ABC poll, "68 percent of poll respondents approve of Obama's job performance. Sixty-four percent said they approve of how Obama is handling appointments to the Cabinet and other top positions in the administration, despite tax problems and stumbles that have led to three of his top nominees withdrawing from consideration."More: "Although Obama has encountered near-unanimous GOP opposition to his stimulus plan in Congress and widespread criticism for a housing bailout plan that some say rewards people who have been fiscally irresponsible, 64 percent of those polled back the economic recovery package, and the same percentage support the mortgage proposal. The broad support for the recovery package comes as just 10 percent said the bill was too heavy on spending and too light on tax cuts, the primary contention of the Republican leadership in Congress. Overall, 60 percent of poll respondents approve of how Obama is dealing with the economy." http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/02/23/AR2009022302176.html?hpid=topnewsThe New York Times on its latest NYT/CBS poll: "The aura of good will surrounding Mr. Obama at this stage of his presidency is similar to the one that benefited Ronald Reagan as he led the nation out of economic gloom. With a job approval rating of 63 percent, Mr. Obama is in a strong position to sell his economic policies. Yet the poll also captured skepticism about how effective his plans will prove to be in addressing the deep recession, as well as a strain of populism that could test his ability to retain public support for efforts to prop up key sectors of the economy."
This is also good news down the road for Obama: "Americans are under no illusions that the country's problems will be resolved quickly, but the poll suggested that they will be patient when it comes to the economy, with most saying it would be years before significant improvement." http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/24/us/politics/24poll.html?_r=1&hpThe New York Daily News previews Obama's State-of-the-Union-like address to Congress tonight. "'He will talk about how tough things are for some Americans, but he will also say that we can, and will, pull ourselves out of this,' said one official. To put a human face on the impact of the economic meltdown, Obama will be able to point to several hard-hit folks invited to sit in First Lady Michelle Obama's section. The "Hero of the Hudson," US Airways pilot Chesley (Sully) Sullenberger, is also expected to attend." http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/2009/02/23/2009-02-23_president_obamas_speech_to_congress_to_b.htmlPolitico's Martin: "When President Barack Obama appears in the Capitol on Tuesday night to address a joint session of Congress and millions of Americans watching at home, he'll face a challenge familiar to his predecessors: how to balance inspiration and exhortation with detail and specifics - a challenge made more difficult by the moment at which he arrives in the House chamber." http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0209/19219.htmlRepublican pollster David Winston writes in Roll Call, "For President Obama, tonight's address has become more than an economic report card to Congress or even another attempt to sell his economic recovery plan. This address to Congress has become a structural positioning speech. He must decide whether he is going to continue to pursue a single-party approach to governing based on the 'we won' doctrine or embrace a true consensus approach to solving the nation's serious problems. What much of Washington's chattering class has forgotten in all the hype about partisanship over the past month is the fact that the majority party defines the level of bipartisanship, not the other way round." http://www.rollcall.com/issues/54_91/winston/32543-1.htmlThe Chicago Tribune: "White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel's Washington lodging arrangements, a rent-free basement room in a Capitol Hill home owned by Rep. Rosa DeLauro (D-Conn) and her pollster husband, have inspired debate among tax experts and in Republican-leaning portions of the blogosphere. One issue is whether Emanuel, who served in the House with DeLauro until early January, should have listed the room either as a gift or as income on his Congressional financial disclosure forms. Emanuel's disclosure filings contain no mention of his use of the room." http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/politics/chi-emanuel_feb24,0,6696332.storyFIRST 100 DAYS: Covering the fiscal summit"A White House summit that opened discussions on how to make sweeping changes in entitlement programs concluded yesterday with a pledge to immediately pursue an effort to provide health insurance to most Americans, which could increase spending in the short term but would be designed to save money later." http://www.boston.com/news/nation/washington/articles/2009/02/24/summit_vows_healthcare_push/USA Today: "President Obama pledged Monday to target Medicare, farm subsidies, tax breaks for companies that ship jobs overseas and no-bid contracts in Iraq in the proposed 2010 budget he will unveil later this week. Turning his attention from short-term economic stimulus to long-term fiscal discipline, Obama said he will urge Congress to require that any spending increases or tax cuts be paid for, rather than add to a $1.3 trillion deficit. That requirement was dropped as the Bush administration waged wars in Afghanistan and Iraq." http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2009-02-23-fiscal_N.htmThe New York Times says that "Mr. Obama called on Mr. McCain to offer any thoughts" during the Q&A session at the end of the president's Fiscal Responsibility Summit. "Mr. McCain praised Mr. Obama for holding the event, then suggested one priority should be dealing with out-of-control military contracts. Exhibit A was the program to replace the current Marine One helicopters, with costs mushrooming to $11.2 billion from $6.1 billion. The Defense Science Board issued a new study blaming 'poor communication' about aircraft requirements between the government and contractors. Lockheed Martin declared Monday that it was 'committed to the program's success' and would meet any conditions imposed by an Obama administration review.""'Your helicopter is now going to cost as much as Air Force One,' Mr. McCain told Mr. Obama. 'I don't think there is any more graphic demonstration of how good ideas have cost taxpayers an enormous amount of money.' Mr. Obama agreed. 'The helicopter I have now seems perfectly adequate to me,' he said to laughter. 'Of course, I've never had a helicopter before, you know? Maybe I've been deprived and I didn't know it. But I think it is in example of the procurement process gone amok. And we're going to have to fix it.'" http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/24/us/politics/24chopper.html?ref=politicsRoll Call's Dennis draws a parallel between Obama's deficit-cut call and George W. Bush's. "In 2004, while running for re-election, Bush proposed cutting the budget deficit 'in half' by 2009. But that was only after a large surplus morphed into a large deficit during his first term. Bush technically succeeded in reaching his goal - and even projected a return to budget surpluses -- before the bottom dropped out of the economy on his way out the door. Which is why one might want to take any of these budget projections with, say, a trillion-dollar grain of salt, or two." http://www.rollcall.com/issues/54_91/roadmap/32558-1.htmlThe New York Times writes that President Obama has settled on former Washington Gov. Gary Locke to be his third pick for Commerce secretary. "Mr. Locke, a two-term governor, former state legislator and onetime county executive, would bring a technocratic, pro-business record to the post. As the first Chinese-American to serve as a governor in the United States, Mr. Locke would also be the third person of Asian descent in Mr. Obama's cabinet, after Energy Secretary Steven Chu and Veterans Affairs Secretary Eric K. Shinseki." http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/24/us/politics/24commerce.html?ref=politics
If the AIG bailout -- the biggest single corporate bailout to date -- is not working, then what do we do? "A.I.G. declined to provide details of its new financial problems, citing the 'quiet period' just before it issues fourth-quarter results. But some people familiar with A.I.G.'s negotiations said it was on the brink of reporting one of the biggest year-end losses in American history. Such losses lead to a bigger problem. A further credit rating downgrade would force the company to raise more capital, according to a person involved in the negotiations. The losses appeared to be across the board, unlike the insurer's losses of last September, which were confined mostly to derivative contracts called credit-default swaps.""A.I.G. has not been writing new credit-default swap contracts, and had tried to put the swaps disaster behind it. In November the company worked out a relief package with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, in which the most toxic of its swap contracts were put into a kind of quarantine, so they could no longer hurt its balance sheet. But A.I.G. had written several other classes of credit-default swaps, which it kept on its books. "http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/24/business/24bailout.html?_r=1&th&emc=thCONGRESS: Trouble at home?The Boston Globe looks at the risk for some Republicans in voting "no" on the stimulus. "When Obama addresses a joint session of Congress in a televised speech tonight to outline his budget priorities and policy agenda, he will face 176 House Republicans who voted unanimously against his stimulus bill. Fewer than one dozen share [Washington State Republican Dave] Reichert's predicament: He represents a district carried by Obama in November, in this case by 15 percentage points. He is the type of endangered Republican most sought by Obama's gestures of bipartisan outreach, but also the type whom the new president's successes would be most likely to dislodge from office." http://www.boston.com/news/nation/washington/articles/2009/02/24/stimulus_nay_carries_risk_for_some_house_republicans/
Shape up or ship out? "At this morning's House Republican Conference meeting, party leaders will unveil a new campaign fundraising and infrastructure program designed to strengthen vulnerable incumbents and hold Members more accountable if they expect any help from the National Republican Congressional Committee in 2010," Roll Call writes. It's called the "Patriot" program and is part of the design to "overhaul" the NRCC "after back-to-back election cycles in which the GOP suffered major losses." And check out this bit: "As one Republican source put it Monday, the effort is also designed to 'end the welfare state that the NRCC has become over the past six to eight years' by setting strict benchmarks for Members and adding one big stick to the process. Namely, those candidates who aren't working to help themselves will be cut off from NRCC financial assistance." http://www.rollcall.com/issues/54_91/news/32556-1.html?ET=rollcall:e4032:80065461a:&st=emailThink Democratic leadership is going to yank Roland Burris soon? Think again. "There is already a process in place that includes investigations by Illinois state officials and the Senate Ethics Committee," Reid spokesman Jim Manley said, per Roll Call. "Let's let the appropriate process play out and let all the facts come to light. But, in the meantime, he is still a Member of the Senate." http://www.rollcall.com/news/32559-1.html
More PMA news: "Several clients of The PMA Group, which was raided by the FBI in November, are slated to receive earmarks worth at least $8 million in the omnibus spending bill funding the federal government through the rest of fiscal 2009, according to a list of projects put together by Rep. Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.)." http://thehill.com/leading-the-news/clients-of-raided-lobbying-shop-rake-in-the-earmarks-2009-02-23.html
2009/2010: The ReplacementsCALIFORNIA: The race to replace Hilda Solis in Congress is underway: "At first glance, given the demographics of the district - about half of Democratic voters are Hispanic -- state Sen. Gil Cedillo (D) should be favored to replace Solis in a race that, for now, also includes State Board of Equalization Chairwoman Judy Chu (D) and former investment banker Emanuel Pleitez (D). But conventional wisdom in this race could be turned on its head in several ways."
ILLINOIS: The Hill checks in with the Democratic race to succeed Rahm Emanuel. Three Democrats have emerged. http://thehill.com/campaign-2008/dem-primary-victor-for-ex-emanuel-seat-likely-to-win-general-2009-02-23.html
KENTUCKY: "Bunning's office originally misspelled Ginsburg's name in the statement but later corrected it. Meanwhile, Republican Kentucky state Senate President David Williams would not rule out a possible run in the primary. Williams has met with the National Republican Senatorial Committee, the GOP campaign arm in Washington, according to a person familiar with the situation who requested anonymity because the meeting was private." http://www.boston.com/news/nation/washington/articles/2009/02/23/sen_bunning_apologizes_for_ginsburg_cancer_remark/
MISSOURI: Roy Blunt's decision to run for the Senate has set off a flurry for the Republican nomination to replace him. http://www.rollcall.com/issues/54_91/politics/32554-1.html
NEW YORK: And Bill Clinton will headline a Kirsten Gillibrand fundraiser March 11 in New York City. http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/2009/02/23/2009-02-23_former_president_bill_clinton_will_headl.html
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