Note to self: Look up 1982-1983 Recession. As one friend told me in email that we missed that one, because we were busy selling microcomputers ....

FIRST THOUGHTS.

*** Another Whirlwind Day: It's another busy day for President/World Traveler Obama.

He will be in Strasbourg, France, and Kehl, Germany, where he has already met with France's President Sarkozy, gave a speech on transatlantic relations (including acknowledging American "arrogance" in its treatment of Europe but also reminding Europeans of their anti-American tendencies) and took questions on that speech from students. Still ahead on the docket: he meets with German Chancellor Merkel at 9:45 am ET. Sarkozy was, perhaps, more gushing over the president than Gordon Brown was a couple of days ago. It was one effusive adjective after another, according to a translation of his remarks. While both Sarkozy and Merkel have been vocal critics of some of Obama's plans, Sarkozy didn't spend a second criticizing the American president. To that point. Even though all politics is local, and there was lots of chest beating for the audiences back home, don't expect any Love, Actually moments. Also, that these leaders disagree on some things isn't surprising. After all, these are Europe's conservative-leaning leaders. (Remember, Sarkozy was praised by the likes of Rudy Giuliani heartily during the 2008 presidential campaign.) And when it comes to stimulus', they already have lots more safety nets in place than the U.S. For an example of why these meetings won't live up to the hype, remember when Obama and Sarkozy met last July. They were, well, Sar-cozy. And today, call them Sar-cozier.
*** Cocky vs. Confident: This line struck us from President Obama's G-20 news conference yesterday. "I would like to think that with my election and the early decisions that we've made, that you're starting to see some restoration of America's standing in the world," he said. "And although, as you know, I always mistrust polls, international polls seem to indicate that you're seeing people more hopeful about America's leadership." This was an odd thing for him to say of himself. It's confidence bordering on, well, you know. it's a fine line; obviously, he wanted to let folks know at home that America is getting treated differently on the world stage, but he needs to be careful not too sound cocky. Every president is cocky in their own way or they wouldn't have gotten elected, but you just can't let it show in a preening manner. It's that confidence, though, that apparently impressed fellow world leaders, when it came to the shuttle diplomacy he played with France and China.
*** Measuring Success: Back home in the U.S., unemployment crept up to 8.5% in March, according to numbers out this morning -- up from 8.1% last month, shedding another 663,000 jobs. The White House is happy with what it got out of the G-20. There is the New York Times front-page headline: "World Leaders Pledge $1.1 Trillion to Tackle Crisis" with a confident-looking Obama pointing in front of world flags. But every world leader wanted to paint the summit a success, at least for them (see Sarkozy taking credit). But Obama's success is foggy. We really won't know for months whether specific things that happened here help folks back home.

And that's ultimately how he'll be judged. The president tried to explain how the developments would help at the news conference, but as AP noted, "When asked, however, he could not point to an individual summit accomplishment that would help recession-battered Americans beyond general points such as fighting protectionism and making the global economy work together." http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1889249,00.html
First Read with NBC News Political Director Chuck Todd, every weekday on MSNBC-TV at 9 a.m. ET.
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