The GOP wants to ignore this one. The Democrats want to jump on it. It is literally eating my lunch, so I need think about it more.

Clues to recession's end lurk in economists' data
When will this wretched economy bottom out?

FD: I will be editing this piece all week.
This recession seems to be a bit different than the last three we have had...here are some random facts.

The recession is already in its 15th month. For now, everything seems to be getting worse: The Dow is in free fall, jobs are vanishing every day, and one in eight American homeowners is in foreclosure or behind on payments.
The economy runs in cycles, and economists are watching an array of statistics to spot the turning point. The Associated Press examined three sectors – housing, jobs and stocks – and asked experts where things stand and how to know when they've hit bottom.

JOBS
How bad is it?
The U.S. unemployment rate hit 8.1 percent in February, a 25-year peak. The nation has lost 4.4 million jobs since the recession began in late 2007. The job cuts began early last year, as the housing and construction industries slowed down. The collapse of the financial industry in the fall battered white-collar workers.

How much worse could it get?
The darkest days for the job market could still be ahead. With spending weak and credit markets stalled, some experts think the economy might shed 2.4 million jobs this year.
The job market will probably be weak for years, even if the economy starts to turn around next year. The unemployment rate may not fall back to its pre-recession level of 5 percent until 2013, according to Moody's Economy.com.

When will it improve?
Economist Sophia Koropeckyj, a managing director at Moody's Economy.com, is keeping an eye out for two signs – a slow rise in companies hiring temporary workers and an increase in the number of hours worked by those still employed. When conditions improve, employers hire temporary workers first, she said, and a pickup in permanent hiring wouldn't be far behind. Koropeckyj estimated that could come in mid-2010.

HOUSING
How bad is it?
The median price of a home sold in the U.S. fell to $170,300 in January, down 26 percent from a year and a half earlier, according to the National Association of Realtors.
This housing crash has spread pain more widely than any before it. Other housing downturns in recent decades have been regional. Prices in the fourth quarter of 2008 fell in nearly 90 percent of the top 150 metro areas, according to the Realtors group.

How much worse could it get?
The Federal Reserve estimates home prices could fall 18 percent to 29 percent more by the end of 2010. Declines will probably be less severe in cities with healthier economies that don't have a glut of unsold homes.
When will it improve?
Susan Wachter, a professor of real estate at the University of Pennsylvania, is watching the backlog of unsold homes. At January's sales pace, it would take about 10 months to rid the market of all those properties. A more normal pace would be six months.
Once foreclosures level off and the backlog is cleared, Wachter says, the housing market can begin to recover. Most economists don't expect home prices to bottom out before the first quarter of 2010.

STOCKS
How bad is it?
The Dow Jones industrial average and the Standard & Poor's 500 index have lost more than half their value since the stock market peaked in October 2007.
How much worse could it get?
Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Harris Private Bank in Chicago, said the Dow could fall to 6,000 if the economy slows much further and unemployment rises well past the current 8.1 percent. He pegs the likelihood of that at about 30 percent. Others are more pessimistic. Bill Strazzullo, chief market strategist for Bell Curve Trading, contends the Dow might fall to 5,000 and the S&P to 500.

When will it improve?
In downturns over the past 60 years, the S&P 500 has hit bottom an average of four months before a recession ended and about nine months before unemployment hit its peak.
Investors will be looking for turnarounds in housing, lending and employment, as well as signs that consumer spending has picked up.
Many market experts say the bottom of the stock market could come in the second or third quarter of this year. And the recovery, whenever it comes, could be as breathtaking as the fall: Since 1932, the S&P 500 has gained an average of 46 percent in the year after stocks have hit a bottom