FIRST THOUGHTS.*** New York State Of Mind: Ready or not, the campaign season -- for 2009, 2010, and 2012 -- essentially begins today with the first competitive race of Obama's presidency: the special congressional election in upstate New York (NY-20) between Democrat Scott Murphy and Republican Jim Tedisco. As we've said before, this contest has it all. It has become a battle over the economic stimulus (Murphy supports it, while Tedisco opposes it); in some form or fashion, it has featured national figures (Obama, Michael Steele, Sarah Palin, even Pat Boone); it will be an early test of the GOP's health in the post-Bush era (if Republicans can't win this slightly GOP-leaning district, where else can they win?); and it will be an early test of Obama's coattails (if the Democrats lose, Republicans will see it as a sign of the end of the president's honeymoon). Oh, and one other thing: The race is about as close as it can get it. Analysts say it's a toss-up, with a recent Siena Research Institute poll showing Murphy ahead by four points (47%-43%), after trailing Tedisco by four points in early March (45%-41%) and 12 points in February (46%-34%). Polling places open at 6:00 am ET and close at 9:00 pm ET.
*** A Little Caution For Pundits: Our gut tells us that a dead heat probably slightly favors the Dems, only because their turnout operation is probably better than the GOP's. Then again, a super low turnout favors the GOP because the most reliable voters in this district skew Republican. But for all of us who will no doubt over-interpret tonight's results, political analyst Charlie Cook gives some important advice in his CongressDaily column today: "Assuming that the margin in this upstate contest to fill the seat of newly-appointed Democratic Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand is three or four points or less, my advice is to respond 'that's nice,' then yawn, and walk away. What is more important is if there is a uniform direction to several odd-year elections. If, for example, Republicans were to win tonight and knock off Gov. Jon Corzine in New Jersey in November, and pick up the open governor seat in Virginia, then it is fair to say that they will have exorcised the demons of 2006 and 2008." More Cook: "If Democrats hold NY-20 as well as New Jersey and Virginia, they can enter 2010 knowing that even if the wind isn't at their backs, there also isn't a headwind."
*** A Significant Day: No doubt we're all getting a bit numb to bailouts, emergency government action, and major announcements from this new president.
But don't let this numbness obscure the fact that yesterday might be one of the five- or ten-most significant moments when the history of the Obama presidency is written in either 2013 or 2017.
He didn't just fire any CEO; he fired the head of an American industrial icon.
And let's not forget the decision to make the White House the center of auto policy for this country. Some on the left are hitting Obama for not firing more CEOs, while the right is hitting him for looking like a nationalist or a government interventionist.
But it is also worth noting the critiques on this auto plan were somewhat muted. The reason: It was a very well-executed rollout.
In fact, it's in stark contrast of all the other bailout announcements that have taken place so far. Here's perhaps why: Every detail of this auto plan seemed to be communicated so well.
There's an auto task force (is there one for AIG?);
there's an auto czar (is there one for the banks?);
there werestrings attached to GM (are there strings for the banks?);
and there was the appointment of a disaster recovery czar (have we seen anything like that regarding, say, folks who have seen their 401ks disappear?).
First Read with NBC News Political Director Chuck Todd, every weekday on MSNBC-TV at 9 a.m. ET.
For more: The latest edition of First Read is available now athttp://www.FirstRead.MSNBC.com !
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