Wednesday, May 6, 2009

Obama Jaw Boning on the NEW War or the OLD Front of the OLD War .... The War just continues...

FIRST THOUGHTS.

*** Obama's Doctrine On Display: The start of today's two-day Af-Pak summit is perhaps as good of an early example of what President Obama believes can be done on the international front. It may be seen some day as "quintessential Obama": bringing people together, holding numerous meetings on various levels (including non-military meetings with cabinet secretary equivalents), and talking -- then, like shampoo directions, rinse, wash, repeat, and (in this case) never stop.

The administration is hoping to hold these trilateral meetings with Afghanistan and Pakistan multiple times a year. The next meeting will take place after Afghanistan's elections in August. Here's today's agenda: President's Karzai and Zardari begin their day at the State Department for private bilateral and trilateral meetings with Secretary of State Clinton. The two men then head to the White House for afternoon meetings with Obama -- first one-on-one (Karzai's is at 2:00 pm ET; Zardari's is at 2:40 pm), and then the trilateral at 3:30 pm. Obama will then deliver remarks at 4:15 pm. The day ends at the Naval Observatory, with Vice President Biden hosting a dinner for the two presidents, which will include key members of Congress. The summit continues Thursday with a slew of cabinet-level meetings led by Agriculture's Tom Vilsack, DOJ's Holder, FBI's Mueller, and CIA's Panetta.

*** It's Tricky. Tricky, Tricky, Tricky: Today's meetings are a tricky affair. The administration has sent numerous signals about its unease with both leaders, and yet it's giving Karzai and Zardari the red-carpet treatment as if they are America's two most important allies. And you know what, they just might be... What's the alternative at this point? If this summit gives Karzai and Zardari political strength at home to make decisions in the U.S. interests, then it will be a success.

The bigger focus today and tomorrow will be Pakistan and not Afghanistan. The issue in Pakistan is as much about its military strategy (will they stop focusing on India and start focusing on the Taliban?) as its political strategy. There are too many leaders in the country who aren't on the same page when it comes to the idea that all three nations share a common enemy: Islamic extremism. The mixed signals some in Pakistan have sent by negotiating truces with Taliban in certain parts of the country are what have led to the Taliban's renewed strength in the country, the U.S. believes.

For what it's worth, the Obama administration dismisses the various threats from Capitol Hill about future funding for either country. Why? It believes everyone in Congress believes instability in either country is a U.S. national security threat. That said, there will be healthy debate about how many strings get attached to funding decisions.

*** Specter's Tough Week: Life as a Democrat hasn't been that easy for Arlen Specter so far. He twice voted against Democratic measures, including last week's budget vote. Then came his interview on "Meet the Press," in which he said he wouldn't be a loyal Democrat. And now there's an upcoming New York Times magazine interview, in which Specter says he wants Norm Coleman to win in his recount battle against Al Franken. (Specter tells CQ that he misspoke to the NYT mag. "In the swirl of moving from one caucus to another, I have to get used to my new teammates," he said. "I'm ordinarily pretty correct in what I say. I've made a career of being precise. I conclusively misspoke.") All of these moves/remarks have infuriated the liberal blogosphere, which is now conducting a straw poll to determine whether there should be a Draft Joe Sestak movement to challenge Specter in a Dem primary.

As Specter is undoubtedly finding out, it's sometimes lonely being stuck in the middle.

Just ask Joe Lieberman. By the way, considering Specter's moderate tendencies, doesn't it actually make sense that he'd be supportive of Coleman? Does the quick back-track show he's more concerned already about his Democratic prospects than his supposed moderate principles?

First Read with NBC News Political Director Chuck Todd, every weekday on MSNBC-TV at 9 a.m. ET.
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