Sunday, January 3, 2010

Click on the LEFT COLUMN Political Map for more...let's play! The 2010 Political Season has started!

News from the Votemaster
Happy Election Year !

If you think 2009 was a politically active and contentious year, you ain't seen nothin' yet.

While the midterm elections are never as exciting as presidential elections, there are so many hotly contested races coming up this year--starting as early as March (the Texas gubernatorial primary)--that there will be plenty of food for political junkies.

At some point we will start updating the map with polling data, but it is much too early now.
(Click on the Map in the left column of this blog to see the updates....)

Case in point. In May 2009, Gov. Charlie Crist (R-FL) was leading former Florida House Speaker Marco Rubio 53% to 18%. A Rasmussen poll taken two weeks ago puts them in a tie at 43% each. By the August primary, who knows where things will be.

Another problem with trying to do the map this early is that while in some states the Senate candidates are known now (e.g., in Missouri it will Robin Carnahan vs. Roy Blunt) in other states the candidates won't be known until the primaries (e.g., in the Kentucky Senate race it will either be Jack Conway or Daniel Mongiardo for the Democrats against either Trey Grayson or Rand Paul for the Republicans).

Averaging the polls for the four possible races is probably close to meaningless, certainly this far out. But at some point, this will all be sorted out and we will know the general election candidates and then it will make sense to starting updating the map daily.

Top Ten Political Surprises of 2009

To reaffirm the adage that in politics a week is a long time, here is a list of 10 political events that very few people were predicting on Jan. 1, 2009. Producing such a list is tricky enough, let alone trying to order the events, so they are in alphabetical order. No doubt an analogous list for 2010 can be produced a year from now.

•Arlen Spector jumped ship and became a Democrat
•Barack Obama was not the liberal his supporters wanted and his opponents feared
•Charlie Crist is no longer a shoo-in as the next senator from Florida
•Jon Corzine managed to lose his reelection race in very blue New Jersey
•Mark Sanford ruined his presidential prospects due to his love of hiking (and Argentinian women).
•Rod Blagojovich was impeached and convicted for trying to sell a Senate seat
•Sarah Palin resigned as governor, wrote a best seller, and became more popular than ever
•Tea parties captured the national spotlight all summer
•Ten 2010 Senate races have shaped up without the 2004 winner*
•The Democrats elected a congressman in NY-23 for the first time since the Civil War

* Arlen Spector won in 2004 but now he is running as a Democrat, which is clearly different from the normal reelection battle.

FD: Note that Politico has a top 10 White House surprises list and Huffington Post has a top 12 political surprises of the decade list. However, you need a consistent source of information, and I consider the Vote Master columnist one of the BEST POLITICAL COLUMNISTS. Click on the Politcal Map in the left column of my blog for even-handed, fair-minded, and objective observations on Politics --- our national sport.

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