Friday, March 13, 2009

I noticed that the online The New York had this piece on Warren Buffett... one of my Democratic Heros... Blue Dog Democrat.


Is Warren Buffett Crazy?
Given the relentless barrage of bad news about the U.S. banking system and the near-constant calls for the government to nationalize the country's biggest banks, you couldn't be faulted for wondering if Warren Buffett had lost his mind when, in a three-hour appearance on CNBC Tuesday, he called this "a great time to be in banking," talked about the massive "earnings power" of banks like Wells Fargo, and said that the government actually doesn't need to supply most banks with "lots of capital." (Another explanation for Buffett's relatively upbeat forecast was that, in industry parlance, he was just "talking his book," since he has big stakes in banks like Wells Fargo and U.S. Bancorp.) But the truth is that the recent history of U.S. banking suggests there's a chance, at least, that Buffett was right.


The key to understanding Buffett's less-than-apocalyptic take on the banks is the idea of the spread: the gap between the interest rate banks can charge for the loans they make and the interest rate they have to pay for the money they borrow -- from depositors or other lenders.


When the Federal Reserve slashes interest rates, particularly when they slash them as aggressively as they have in the past year, spreads widen, so that every loan a bank issues becomes more profitable. And that's especially true today, because the risk aversion of investors and financial institutions has meant that the interest rates on loans have fallen less than they normally would have, given the steep decline in the fed funds rate. Buffett, for instance, said that in the fourth quarter of 2008, Wells Fargo's cost of funds -- how much it had to pay to borrow money -- was just 1.44 percent. Needless to say, the average interest rate it charged the people it was lending to was a lot higher than that. In fact, though it's hard to get exact data on this, it's possible that, as Buffett said, the spreads on loans have "never been wider."


And when you combine that with the sheer number of loans these giant banks have on their books, you're talking about individual banks earning tens of billions of dollars on their own.


FD: YOU CAN READ MORE OF THIS ONLINE



FD:
Warren Buffett says "invest in what you know and what you buy." If you own a Ford, you should own Ford stock. If you drink Coke, you should own Coke stock. If you eat Kraft products, you should own Kraft stock. What do you use, buy, and recommend to others? Invest in those companies. And if you look at today's market, the prices of those stocks are low, but not as low as the market. They have value, because you use and buy them every day, every week, every month, every year, every decade.
Warren Buffett says "stay in the market".
If you want to invest, invest what you can afford to lose. Invest that amount, every month or with every paycheck. Invest in a mix of stocks. (see above)
But don't jump in and out. Don't invest a lot and then nothing. Set your budget. Pick your stocks. And invest the SAME AMOUNT, EVERY MONTH. Markets go up and down. When they are down you are buying on the cheap, when they are up, you are buying high, but if you don't sell them... they average out and you don't miss a buying opportunity, because you are always buying. You don't lose, because you are always in the market.
And never miss an opportunity to promote your brands... to talk book.

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